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<blockquote data-quote="GGWP" data-source="post: 39875" data-attributes="member: 93">I read this article recently and it&#039;s quite well-written and gives a comprehensive background on the predictions for Singularity:[URL unfurl=&quot;true&quot;]https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/[/URL]Expert predictions for AI tend to radically overestimate the time taken to reach critical milestones. The watershed moment when the modern field of &#039;Deep Learning&#039; was truly born (what most people think AI is) occurred between 2014-2017 with the birth of Attention Mechanisms, so despite AI being conceptually backdated to Turing, modern &#039;AI&#039; is less than a decade old. Trying to predict future trends in an &#039;expert prediction&#039; is really tantamount to gut feeling because it&#039;s impossible to extrapolate progress trends of&nbsp; such a young invention.When it comes to WW3 I think the world is too globalized to wage war on a mass scale (also WTF is the point of sending infantry to die if we have robot dogs and autonomous drones...) but that could be wishful thinking; I have no idea what the intentions of our modern governments are. I imagine WW3 would be predominantly psychological due to the invasive grip that exploitable social networks have over the mind of the populace.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="GGWP, post: 39875, member: 93"] I read this article recently and it's quite well-written and gives a comprehensive background on the predictions for Singularity: [URL unfurl="true"]https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/[/URL] Expert predictions for AI tend to radically overestimate the time taken to reach critical milestones. The watershed moment when the modern field of 'Deep Learning' was truly born (what most people think AI is) occurred between 2014-2017 with the birth of Attention Mechanisms, so despite AI being conceptually backdated to Turing, modern 'AI' is less than a decade old. Trying to predict future trends in an 'expert prediction' is really tantamount to gut feeling because it's impossible to extrapolate progress trends of such a young invention. When it comes to WW3 I think the world is too globalized to wage war on a mass scale (also WTF is the point of sending infantry to die if we have robot dogs and autonomous drones...) but that could be wishful thinking; I have no idea what the intentions of our modern governments are. I imagine WW3 would be predominantly psychological due to the invasive grip that exploitable social networks have over the mind of the populace. [/QUOTE]

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