Discussion Singularity or WWIII?

[Amor Fati]

Which happens first?

Or maybe both.

@GGWP @Magonia @Asgard

 

[MAGONIA]

Grok says

• Technological Singularity: Likely between 2040 and 2060, with 2050 as the midpoint. This is a speculative yet informed estimate based on AI progress and challenges.
• World War III: Possible within 2035 to 2045 (10-20 years from now), though highly uncertain and preventable. This reflects current geopolitical risks.

My opinion is we are already in WWIII. its just not kinetic

If I was in charge I would dump entire nuclear arsenal as soon as i verify all targets

 

[Jacob]

WW3. As for ASI, we're still a couple of decades away from actually taking place.

 

[GGWP]

Hard to say because I don't know the geopolitical situation well enough to predict WW3 with accuracy.
However what I will say is that as of recently there's an uptick in papers utilizing principles of self-improvement, especially evolutionary algorithms such as AlphaEvolve or the recent 'Darwin Godel Machine' (DGM)...

Darwin Godel Machine: Open-Ended Evolution of Self-Improving Agents

Today's AI systems have human-designed, fixed architectures and cannot autonomously and continuously improve themselves. The advance of AI could itself be automated. If done safely, that would accelerate AI development and allow us to reap its benefits much sooner. Meta-learning can automate the...

arxiv.org

The DGM automatically improves itself from 20.0% to 50.0% on SWE-bench, and from 14.2% to 30.7% on Polyglot. We show that self-improvement enables continued progress, as the DGM outperforms the baseline where the same initial agent is repeatedly used to modify and generate new agents without self-improvement. We also show that open-ended exploration and keeping an archive of all previously generated agents lead to the discovery of better coding agents. The DGM outperforms the baseline of not having open-ended exploration (i.e., a baseline without the accumulation of an archive of interestingly different stepping stones), where the coding agent always builds off the most recent version of itself. Overall, the DGM represents a step toward AI systems that can build upon their own prior innovations and improve recursively.

In conclusion, the DGM represents a significant step toward the automation of AI development
through self-improving systems capable of editing their own codebase

If you were to ask me I think Leopold Aschenbrenner was spot on. Using methods such as evolutionary algorithms, synthetic data manipulation, AI designing more efficient algorithms, hybrid architectures and reinforcement learning my personal bet for intelligence explosion is in late 2026 or 2027.

The US StarGate initiative provides ample funding to accelerate AI development and design and also signals the intensified AI arms race with China:

Here’s What’s in ‘Stargate,’ the $500-Billion Trump-Endorsed Plan to Power U.S. AI

Tech giants are backing a massive effort, announced by President Trump and dubbed the Stargate Project, to add data centers across the U.S.

www.scientificamerican.com

So we are likely to see increasingly heated competition between corporations like DeepSeek (China) and OpenAI (US) as more and more money is thrown at the problem.

 

[autistic_tendencies]

The war is just a fear mongering psy op imo

The real event will be the emergence of AGI our generations Industrial Revolution

 

[GGWP]

Hard to say because I don't know the geopolitical situation well enough to predict WW3 with accuracy.
However what I will say is that as of recently there's an uptick in papers utilizing principles of self-improvement, especially evolutionary algorithms such as AlphaEvolve or the recent 'Darwin Godel Machine' (DGM)...

Darwin Godel Machine: Open-Ended Evolution of Self-Improving Agents

Today's AI systems have human-designed, fixed architectures and cannot autonomously and continuously improve themselves. The advance of AI could itself be automated. If done safely, that would accelerate AI development and allow us to reap its benefits much sooner. Meta-learning can automate the...

arxiv.org

If you were to ask me I think Leopold Aschenbrenner was spot on. Using methods such as evolutionary algorithms, synthetic data manipulation, AI designing more efficient algorithms, hybrid architectures and reinforcement learning my personal bet for intelligence explosion is in late 2026 or 2027.

The US StarGate initiative provides ample funding to accelerate AI development and design and also signals the intensified AI arms race with China:

Here’s What’s in ‘Stargate,’ the $500-Billion Trump-Endorsed Plan to Power U.S. AI

Tech giants are backing a massive effort, announced by President Trump and dubbed the Stargate Project, to add data centers across the U.S.

www.scientificamerican.com

So we are likely to see increasingly heated competition between corporations like DeepSeek (China) and OpenAI (US) as more and more money is thrown at the problem.

I read this article recently and it's quite well-written and gives a comprehensive background on the predictions for Singularity:

AGI/Singularity: 10,000 Predictions Analyzed

Explore key predictions from AI scientists, leading entrepreneurs, and the community predictions on AGI/singularity timeline.

research.aimultiple.com

Expert predictions for AI tend to radically overestimate the time taken to reach critical milestones. The watershed moment when the modern field of 'Deep Learning' was truly born (what most people think AI is) occurred between 2014-2017 with the birth of Attention Mechanisms, so despite AI being conceptually backdated to Turing, modern 'AI' is less than a decade old. Trying to predict future trends in an 'expert prediction' is really tantamount to gut feeling because it's impossible to extrapolate progress trends of such a young invention.

When it comes to WW3 I think the world is too globalized to wage war on a mass scale (also WTF is the point of sending infantry to die if we have robot dogs and autonomous drones...) but that could be wishful thinking; I have no idea what the intentions of our modern governments are. I imagine WW3 would be predominantly psychological due to the invasive grip that exploitable social networks have over the mind of the populace.

 

[Amor Fati]

I read this article recently and it's quite well-written and gives a comprehensive background on the predictions for Singularity:

AGI/Singularity: 10,000 Predictions Analyzed

Explore key predictions from AI scientists, leading entrepreneurs, and the community predictions on AGI/singularity timeline.

research.aimultiple.com

Expert predictions for AI tend to radically overestimate the time taken to reach critical milestones. The watershed moment when the modern field of 'Deep Learning' was truly born (what most people think AI is) occurred between 2014-2017 with the birth of Attention Mechanisms, so despite AI being conceptually backdated to Turing, modern 'AI' is less than a decade old. Trying to predict future trends in an 'expert prediction' is really tantamount to gut feeling because it's impossible to extrapolate progress trends of such a young invention.

When it comes to WW3 I think the world is too globalized to wage war on a mass scale (also WTF is the point of sending infantry to die if we have robot dogs and autonomous drones...) but that could be wishful thinking; I have no idea what the intentions of our modern governments are. I imagine WW3 would be predominantly psychological due to the invasive grip that exploitable social networks have over the mind of the populace.

What do you think the world will look like post-singularity? This is shaping up to be a very interesting century. A kind of transition phase between the old world to the new. People's existing perceptions and ties to the old way of things will prove to be cumbersome.

 

[GGWP]

What do you think the world will look like post-singularity? This is shaping up to be a very interesting century. A kind of transition phase between the old world to the new. People's existing perceptions and ties to the old way of things will prove to be cumbersome.

I think that depends on the nature of the people that have control over it.
It has the potential to burn everything to the ground or create an illustrious utopia.

 

[Ultimate Subhuman]

Singularity

 

[MAGONIA]

Nothing can stop what is coming

 

[Shinrinken]

WW3 would happen before any form of "Singularity."
Video below will explain why

 

[Arnold Schwarzwald]

On Petter Thiels secret talks on WW3:

Get ready to die to a Chinese robo dog. America will be false flagged again probably Cali. Reawakening the sleepy golem war machine that is America but now we will have AI death machines.

 

[Arnold Schwarzwald]

I think the more interesting question is civil war 2 before WW3.

 

[newsincerity]

I think the more interesting question is civil war 2 before WW3.

and bombing of California Uganda to end this kali yuga

 

[Arnold Schwarzwald]

and bombing of California Uganda to end this kali yuga

It's supposed to last last for a really long time.

 

[Arnold Schwarzwald]

and bombing of California Uganda to end this kali yuga

Looky looky who's got the cookie.

 

[MAGONIA]

It's supposed to last last for a really long time.

Its really variable. depending on your guru you can have all kinds of opinions.
in my weird fiction Kali Yuga began at 0AD and we slowly started being effected by the warp during the clinton administration
yep its both Kali Yuga and the Warp? What now? its over

 

[newsincerity]

Its really variable. depending on your guru you can have all kinds of opinions.
in my weird fiction Kali Yuga began at 0AD and we slowly started being effected by the warp during the clinton administration
yep its both Kali Yuga and the Warp? What now? its over

what's Warp

It's supposed to last last for a really long time.

Who says so
anyway Source is helping this KY is special and it can be cut short

 

[MAGONIA]

what's Warp

no one can stop what is coming

 

[newsincerity]

no one can stop what is coming

not watching that
you explain

 

[MAGONIA]

not watching that
you explain

its not completely understandable. there is a distorting sphere out there the size of a galaxy. it makes people retard like wanting to convince children the righteousness of cutting their dicks off. Its the progressive political nature is the subtle influence of the warp. To destroy our great society because of the mere fact that its imperfect and thus destroyable and must be restructured on just winging it with whatever feels good at the time is early stage warp affliction