Discussion Singularity or WWIII?

[Tabula Rasa]

Which happens first?

Or maybe both.

@GGWP @Magonia @Asgard

 

[Xuelian Baijie]

Grok says

• Technological Singularity: Likely between 2040 and 2060, with 2050 as the midpoint. This is a speculative yet informed estimate based on AI progress and challenges.
• World War III: Possible within 2035 to 2045 (10-20 years from now), though highly uncertain and preventable. This reflects current geopolitical risks.

My opinion is we are already in WWIII. its just not kinetic

If I was in charge I would dump entire nuclear arsenal as soon as i verify all targets

 

[Asgard]

WW3. As for ASI, we're still a couple of decades away from actually taking place.

 

[GGWP]

Hard to say because I don't know the geopolitical situation well enough to predict WW3 with accuracy.
However what I will say is that as of recently there's an uptick in papers utilizing principles of self-improvement, especially evolutionary algorithms such as AlphaEvolve or the recent 'Darwin Godel Machine' (DGM)...

Darwin Godel Machine: Open-Ended Evolution of Self-Improving Agents

Today's AI systems have human-designed, fixed architectures and cannot autonomously and continuously improve themselves. The advance of AI could itself be automated. If done safely, that would accelerate AI development and allow us to reap its benefits much sooner. Meta-learning can automate the...

arxiv.org

The DGM automatically improves itself from 20.0% to 50.0% on SWE-bench, and from 14.2% to 30.7% on Polyglot. We show that self-improvement enables continued progress, as the DGM outperforms the baseline where the same initial agent is repeatedly used to modify and generate new agents without self-improvement. We also show that open-ended exploration and keeping an archive of all previously generated agents lead to the discovery of better coding agents. The DGM outperforms the baseline of not having open-ended exploration (i.e., a baseline without the accumulation of an archive of interestingly different stepping stones), where the coding agent always builds off the most recent version of itself. Overall, the DGM represents a step toward AI systems that can build upon their own prior innovations and improve recursively.

In conclusion, the DGM represents a significant step toward the automation of AI development
through self-improving systems capable of editing their own codebase

If you were to ask me I think Leopold Aschenbrenner was spot on. Using methods such as evolutionary algorithms, synthetic data manipulation, AI designing more efficient algorithms, hybrid architectures and reinforcement learning my personal bet for intelligence explosion is in late 2026 or 2027.

The US StarGate initiative provides ample funding to accelerate AI development and design and also signals the intensified AI arms race with China:

Here’s What’s in ‘Stargate,’ the $500-Billion Trump-Endorsed Plan to Power U.S. AI

Tech giants are backing a massive effort, announced by President Trump and dubbed the Stargate Project, to add data centers across the U.S.

www.scientificamerican.com

So we are likely to see increasingly heated competition between corporations like DeepSeek (China) and OpenAI (US) as more and more money is thrown at the problem.

 

[autistic_tendencies]

The war is just a fear mongering psy op imo

The real event will be the emergence of AGI our generations Industrial Revolution

 

[GGWP]

Hard to say because I don't know the geopolitical situation well enough to predict WW3 with accuracy.
However what I will say is that as of recently there's an uptick in papers utilizing principles of self-improvement, especially evolutionary algorithms such as AlphaEvolve or the recent 'Darwin Godel Machine' (DGM)...

Darwin Godel Machine: Open-Ended Evolution of Self-Improving Agents

Today's AI systems have human-designed, fixed architectures and cannot autonomously and continuously improve themselves. The advance of AI could itself be automated. If done safely, that would accelerate AI development and allow us to reap its benefits much sooner. Meta-learning can automate the...

arxiv.org

If you were to ask me I think Leopold Aschenbrenner was spot on. Using methods such as evolutionary algorithms, synthetic data manipulation, AI designing more efficient algorithms, hybrid architectures and reinforcement learning my personal bet for intelligence explosion is in late 2026 or 2027.

The US StarGate initiative provides ample funding to accelerate AI development and design and also signals the intensified AI arms race with China:

Here’s What’s in ‘Stargate,’ the $500-Billion Trump-Endorsed Plan to Power U.S. AI

Tech giants are backing a massive effort, announced by President Trump and dubbed the Stargate Project, to add data centers across the U.S.

www.scientificamerican.com

So we are likely to see increasingly heated competition between corporations like DeepSeek (China) and OpenAI (US) as more and more money is thrown at the problem.

I read this article recently and it's quite well-written and gives a comprehensive background on the predictions for Singularity:

When Will AGI/Singularity Happen? 8,590 Predictions Analyzed

research.aimultiple.com

Expert predictions for AI tend to radically overestimate the time taken to reach critical milestones. The watershed moment when the modern field of 'Deep Learning' was truly born (what most people think AI is) occurred between 2014-2017 with the birth of Attention Mechanisms, so despite AI being conceptually backdated to Turing, modern 'AI' is less than a decade old. Trying to predict future trends in an 'expert prediction' is really tantamount to gut feeling because it's impossible to extrapolate progress trends of such a young invention.

When it comes to WW3 I think the world is too globalized to wage war on a mass scale (also WTF is the point of sending infantry to die if we have robot dogs and autonomous drones...) but that could be wishful thinking; I have no idea what the intentions of our modern governments are. I imagine WW3 would be predominantly psychological due to the invasive grip that exploitable social networks have over the mind of the populace.

 

[Tabula Rasa]

I read this article recently and it's quite well-written and gives a comprehensive background on the predictions for Singularity:

When Will AGI/Singularity Happen? 8,590 Predictions Analyzed

research.aimultiple.com

Expert predictions for AI tend to radically overestimate the time taken to reach critical milestones. The watershed moment when the modern field of 'Deep Learning' was truly born (what most people think AI is) occurred between 2014-2017 with the birth of Attention Mechanisms, so despite AI being conceptually backdated to Turing, modern 'AI' is less than a decade old. Trying to predict future trends in an 'expert prediction' is really tantamount to gut feeling because it's impossible to extrapolate progress trends of such a young invention.

When it comes to WW3 I think the world is too globalized to wage war on a mass scale (also WTF is the point of sending infantry to die if we have robot dogs and autonomous drones...) but that could be wishful thinking; I have no idea what the intentions of our modern governments are. I imagine WW3 would be predominantly psychological due to the invasive grip that exploitable social networks have over the mind of the populace.

What do you think the world will look like post-singularity? This is shaping up to be a very interesting century. A kind of transition phase between the old world to the new. People's existing perceptions and ties to the old way of things will prove to be cumbersome.

 

[GGWP]

What do you think the world will look like post-singularity? This is shaping up to be a very interesting century. A kind of transition phase between the old world to the new. People's existing perceptions and ties to the old way of things will prove to be cumbersome.

I think that depends on the nature of the people that have control over it.
It has the potential to burn everything to the ground or create an illustrious utopia.

 

[Ultimate Subhuman]

Singularity