There are several flaws again in these arguments. Markets have rules, states dont have emotions. Study:
-institutional economics
-Monetary eco
- political economy (states respond to internal incentives first, not blood revenge from centuries ago, if this was true brazil would had invaded portugal)
-comparative political Institutions (europe is not a single actor)
-risk management, portfolio theory
hHistorical method "The Historical Method in finance, primarily used for calculating Value at Risk (VaR), estimates potential future losses by analyzing past market data, assuming history repeats itself"
-systems Theory like game theory.
These are the stuff i found that can be help you out on your finance studies, i reverse enginner college fields and study trough books.